I just read an interesting article which discusses that the IRS has acknowledged that they are or could have trouble dealing with the heavy volume of transactions this week.  They have even requested software providers to stagger and/or limit the submission of tax returns.  My best educated guess is that most returns filed and acknowledged by Weds 2/16/11 should have their federal refunds direct deposited by Friday February 25th but it possible that they could slide out until Friday March 4th.